The Caesars have been interested in Aledmys Diaz since the day he signed a professional contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. After rumors of a larger contract, he signed with the Cards last February for four years and $8 million guaranteed. The terms of the contract paid Diaz the league minimum in 2015, $1.5 million this year, and $2 million in 2016 and 2017. This reflects the Cards philosophy of aligning pay with expectations - something they also did in Jhonny Peralta's contract. Peralta also signed with the team in the 2014 offseason and will receive $30.5 million in the first two years of his contract and only $22.5 million in the final two. This reflects an organizational belief that he will have to move off of shortstop and therefore be less valuable. Similarly, Diaz was never projected to contribute in 2014 and the team has always viewed him as a potential contributor in 2015 and beyond.
The Tigers were the high bidder for Diaz's BSL services and signed him to a three year contract worth 20 points. The contract paid Diaz $5.45 million last year and only owes him just over $4 million the next two seasons. Most importantly, because Diaz did not accumulate any service time in 2015, he'll fall under Super 2 status in 2017, capping his salary at $1.3625 million. The Tigers have one of the deepest rosters in BSL and found themselves in a roster crunch this offseason, so they designated Diaz for assignment on February 6th. The Caesars immediately reached out to discuss a possible trade, but the Tigers wanted to see if anyone would claim Diaz and take on his entire salary. Ultimately, no other team claimed him and he was outrighted from the 40 man roster a week later.
After a series of larger discussions, the Caesars reached an agreement to acquire Diaz in exchange for Dodgers' pitching prospect Zachary Bird. The Caesars will only be responsible for $250,000 of Diaz's salary in each of his two remaining guaranteed years - essentially the equivalent to a late round draft bonus. Bird was originally drafted by the Caesars in the 2013 FYPD and a 9th round pick by the Dodgers out of high school in 2012. He's an athletic, projectable pitcher with a huge fastball, but has struggled with his command and developing secondary pitches. Baseball America ranked him 19th in the Dodgers organization and noted that he found success in August when he pitched out of the stretch exclusively. He seems ticketed for the bullpen and Baseball Prospectus noted that was the overall industry opinion and one of the reasons he did not make their list of Dodgers prospects. Keith Law was a little more positive, ranking Bird 10th in the Dodgers organization, but also noted that if he does not improve his delivery, he'll be a high-velocity reliever.
Diaz only played 47 games last year and it was the first time he's played organized baseball in two years. He experienced a number of injuries due to a lack of strength and spent time building up his shoulder strength to handle the demands of a professional season. When he played, he performed well, especially when the layoff is considered. Overall he hit .273/.324/.431. He brought an aggressive approach to the plate and only walked in 5% of his PAs while striking out nearly 19% of the time, but he also showed good power. Defensively, he is capable at SS, but probably is not good enough to play everyday. The team is very bullish on Diaz this year as he has worked hard to get in shape. Hitting coach John Mabry said Diaz is a player to watch in MLB Spring Training. Baseball Prospectus noted that the industry in general is also optimistic and wants to see him stay on the field for a full season. A healthy Diaz could contribute at the MLB level as early as this summer. He has a lot of upside and even a worst case scenario seems to be a bench role at the MLB level thanks to his versatility and power.
This minor trade will likely end up being exactly that. Both teams exchanged flawed players who still have some upside. The Caesars view Bird as a reliever who is two years away from contributing, while Diaz should have value this season and has a higher chance of contributing as a regular at some point in the future.
Monday, March 2, 2015
Friday, February 13, 2015
Minor League Invitations, Part Three
Here is the next batch of Caesars minor league invites:
Todd Redmond, RHP TOR: Redmond spent part of the 2014 season on the Caesars AAA so they were happy to bring him back for 2015. He was a full time reliever for the Blue Jays in 2014 after making 14 starts for them in 2013. He was able to handle a heavier workload than the typical reliever and finished 11th in RP IP in MLB. The overwhelming majority of his work came in low leverage situations and he often went six or more days without being used. He's the last man in the bullpen and saved for extra innings or mop up duty. Redmond walks a very tight rope as he gets groundballs at low 32.7% clip, has historically been prone to home runs (last year was an exception), and doesn't strike out batters at an above average rate. He will likely regress and post an ERA closer to four than three in 2015, but the volume of his innings gives him some value.
Bryan Anderson, C OAK: Here is the A's current catching depth chart: Stephen Vogt (Caesar! but 15 games at C last year), Josh Phegley (career .553 OPS in 76 games), Anderson/Luke Carlin (34 years old)/Blake Forsythe. This is a bet on the A's running out of catchers. Anderson was a top 100 prospect earlier in his career after being drafted by the Cardinals out of a California HS in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. He peaked at #85 on the Baseball America list and #71 on the Baseball Prospectus list after hitting .298/.350/.388 in AA Springfield as a 20 year old. He made it to AAA the next season and his progress stalled as he dealt with numerous injuries. He made his MLB debut in 2010 and got at least an AB in each of the last three seasons, but they've all been for different teams. The A's purchased him from the Reds late last season when he hit .320/.397/.538 in AA and AAA including a .964 OPS vs RH. Anderson could be a viable lefthanded member of a platoon. Phegley hits right handed and Vogt could continue seeing the majority of his time at COF and 1B, meaning Anderson will get a shot to play a lot. The A's could go another direction, but the Caesars expect to see Anderson take an April AB in MLB for the first time since 2010.
Juan Jaime, RHP ATL: Jaime checks in at 6'2, 200 and can easily touch the upper 90s. He was signed way back in 2004 by the Nationals as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic, but was released following the 2009 season. Following a stint in the Mexican League, the Braves signed him in 2012 and assigned him to the Carolina League. He progressed through the system, including a stint in the 2013 Arizona Fall League, to make his MLB debut last summer. In the Braves system he threw 134.1 innings and struck out 206, good for a 13.8 K/9. Unfortunately he also walked 97 in those innings. The same problems plagued him in his brief debut last summer. In 12.1 MLB innings he struck out 18 while walking nine. He showed progress in the Domincan Winter League recording a 25/6 K/BB ratio in 16.1 IP. If he can continue this progress and exhibit some form of control, he could be a viable major league reliever. He obviously has a strong fastball and his curveball and splitter can both be average. He'll be 28 in August so age is not on his side.
Rafael Lopez, C CHC: The Cubs entered the offseason with Wellington Castillo as their starting catcher and Lopez serving as his backup. After trading for Miguel Montero and signed veteran backup David Ross, both are potentially ticketed for AAA, but it's likely Castillo is traded. Lopez has the upside of being an offensive minded MLB backup, but he's already 27 and just cracked AAA and MLB last year, so his opportunity is fleeting. He was drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft from Florida State and has always been old for his level in his journey through the minor leagues. That's played some of a role in his career .281/.371/.401 line. He bats lefthanded and has had significant platoon splits at AA and AAA. He has only thrown out 31% of minor league basestealers which would rate him among the worst in MLB. It's unlikely he sees MLB time before September and if the Cubs are as good as many think they will be, he won't even get an opportunity then.
Rafael Lopez, C CHC: The Cubs entered the offseason with Wellington Castillo as their starting catcher and Lopez serving as his backup. After trading for Miguel Montero and signed veteran backup David Ross, both are potentially ticketed for AAA, but it's likely Castillo is traded. Lopez has the upside of being an offensive minded MLB backup, but he's already 27 and just cracked AAA and MLB last year, so his opportunity is fleeting. He was drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft from Florida State and has always been old for his level in his journey through the minor leagues. That's played some of a role in his career .281/.371/.401 line. He bats lefthanded and has had significant platoon splits at AA and AAA. He has only thrown out 31% of minor league basestealers which would rate him among the worst in MLB. It's unlikely he sees MLB time before September and if the Cubs are as good as many think they will be, he won't even get an opportunity then.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Minor League Invitations, Part Two
Here is the next batch of Caesars minor league invites:
Steven Wright, RHP BOS: The Caesars traded Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez earlier this offseason and that move helped them learn about Wright. Wright is a knuckle-baller and Vaquez is an elite defensive catcher. This will give Wright confidence to float balls all over the place. He said no catcher has ever been as excited to catch him as Vazquez and that article also reveals that Wright has been working with Tim Wakefield, the best modern-day knuckler. Wright pitched mainly in AAA last season, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 95 innings, but also threw 21 innings allowing a 2.57 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in the major leagues. Wright will look to be a swingman for the Sox in 2015 and the Caesars are hopeful that he'll continue to have the success he exhibited last year when Vazquez was catching for him.
Jason Motte, RHP CHC: The Caesars originally signed Motte in the 2013 FASP process before he was ruled out for the season with Tommy John surgery. They used that as an opportunity to get him on a cheap one year contract for 2014, but his subpar performance led to him being released on August 31st. There's no question the road back from TJS is a long one and Motte showed this last year. His average velocity in 2011 and 2012 eclipsed 97 MPH but he just barely cracked 95 MPH in 2014. He also showed threw 7.9 % changeups after never throwing more than 2% in previous seasons. The Cardinals did not resign him and he moved to their young, surging rival, the Cubs, on a one year contract. Motte was downright terrible last year. He couldn't get the ball past batters or locate and when he managed to throw strikes, he got hit hard, allowing a 20% HR/FB rate. If Motte's stuff is back, he could bounce back to being close to his former self. The days of a 2.00 ERA are probably over, but something in the low 3s is definitely feasible.
Jason Rogers, 1B MIL: Rogers looks like the classic AAAA player. He was drafted in the 23rd round from Columbus State University, will be 27 in early March, and is a career .286/.367/.453 minor league hitter. He was drafted as a first baseman but made the transition to third base in 2014, but he only posted a .938 fielding percentage. He hits right handed and had a very wide platoon split across AA and AAA last year and hit 15/18 home runs vs left handed pitching. Despite not making any outlet's Brewers top ten prospects (still waiting on my BA handbook), he has a good chance of making the team to serve as a platoon mate to Adam Lind and backup to Aramis Ramirez. If he makes the team and mostly plays against left-handed pitching, the Caesars will look for him to outperform his 249/.315/.404 PECOTA projection, primarily in the OBP. If he qualifies at 3B, he'd be a decent backup, but probably will not hit enough to ever get consideration at 1B.
Justin Bour, 1B MIA: Like Rogers, Bour looks like a classic AAAA hitter. He was drafted by the Cubs in the 25th round of the 2009 draft from George Mason University in Fairfax, VA (a DC suburb). The Marlins drafted him in the minor league phase of the 2013 draft and he thrived in the PCL hitting .306/.372/.517 in 430 PAs. The real breakout was the power as he had never slugged higher than .478 at any level of the minor leagues. Additionally he continued to improve his contact ability as he struck out in 13.3% of his PAs while his career rate coming into the season was 18.6%. He was called up three times and played 20 games over the summer before playing 18 games in September. His overall MLB line was a respectable .284/.361/.365 albeit it was slightly inflated by a .370 BABIP. He hits lefthanded and seems like a natural platoon partner with the recently signed Michael Morse.
Steven Wright, RHP BOS: The Caesars traded Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez earlier this offseason and that move helped them learn about Wright. Wright is a knuckle-baller and Vaquez is an elite defensive catcher. This will give Wright confidence to float balls all over the place. He said no catcher has ever been as excited to catch him as Vazquez and that article also reveals that Wright has been working with Tim Wakefield, the best modern-day knuckler. Wright pitched mainly in AAA last season, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 95 innings, but also threw 21 innings allowing a 2.57 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in the major leagues. Wright will look to be a swingman for the Sox in 2015 and the Caesars are hopeful that he'll continue to have the success he exhibited last year when Vazquez was catching for him.
Jason Motte, RHP CHC: The Caesars originally signed Motte in the 2013 FASP process before he was ruled out for the season with Tommy John surgery. They used that as an opportunity to get him on a cheap one year contract for 2014, but his subpar performance led to him being released on August 31st. There's no question the road back from TJS is a long one and Motte showed this last year. His average velocity in 2011 and 2012 eclipsed 97 MPH but he just barely cracked 95 MPH in 2014. He also showed threw 7.9 % changeups after never throwing more than 2% in previous seasons. The Cardinals did not resign him and he moved to their young, surging rival, the Cubs, on a one year contract. Motte was downright terrible last year. He couldn't get the ball past batters or locate and when he managed to throw strikes, he got hit hard, allowing a 20% HR/FB rate. If Motte's stuff is back, he could bounce back to being close to his former self. The days of a 2.00 ERA are probably over, but something in the low 3s is definitely feasible.
Jason Rogers, 1B MIL: Rogers looks like the classic AAAA player. He was drafted in the 23rd round from Columbus State University, will be 27 in early March, and is a career .286/.367/.453 minor league hitter. He was drafted as a first baseman but made the transition to third base in 2014, but he only posted a .938 fielding percentage. He hits right handed and had a very wide platoon split across AA and AAA last year and hit 15/18 home runs vs left handed pitching. Despite not making any outlet's Brewers top ten prospects (still waiting on my BA handbook), he has a good chance of making the team to serve as a platoon mate to Adam Lind and backup to Aramis Ramirez. If he makes the team and mostly plays against left-handed pitching, the Caesars will look for him to outperform his 249/.315/.404 PECOTA projection, primarily in the OBP. If he qualifies at 3B, he'd be a decent backup, but probably will not hit enough to ever get consideration at 1B.
Justin Bour, 1B MIA: Like Rogers, Bour looks like a classic AAAA hitter. He was drafted by the Cubs in the 25th round of the 2009 draft from George Mason University in Fairfax, VA (a DC suburb). The Marlins drafted him in the minor league phase of the 2013 draft and he thrived in the PCL hitting .306/.372/.517 in 430 PAs. The real breakout was the power as he had never slugged higher than .478 at any level of the minor leagues. Additionally he continued to improve his contact ability as he struck out in 13.3% of his PAs while his career rate coming into the season was 18.6%. He was called up three times and played 20 games over the summer before playing 18 games in September. His overall MLB line was a respectable .284/.361/.365 albeit it was slightly inflated by a .370 BABIP. He hits lefthanded and seems like a natural platoon partner with the recently signed Michael Morse.
Thursday, February 5, 2015
2015 Minor League Invitations, Part One
The Boys of Summer league allows teams to offer players minor league contracts beginning on February 1st. The Caesars are hoping to ultimately add ten or twelve minor league free agents. Here is a quick rundown of the first batch of signees:
Felix Doubront, LHP CHC: Doubront has confounded baseball analysts for years as he's left handed with good stuff and has flashed brilliance at the MLB level. His ability to provide long relief in the 2013 World Series was a critical aspect to the Red Sox win and inspired optimism from the team and fanbase about his 2014 prospects. He failed miserably compiling a 2-4 record with a 5.12 ERA in his first nine starts. Following his start on May 20th, he hit the DL with a left shoulder strain.. He returned on June 20th to make what would be his final start as a Red Sox but didn't make it out of the fifth inning while walking four. He made a couple of relief appearances in mop up duty before the Sox traded him to Chicago at the trade deadline for a PTBNL. He made another trip to the DL with a calf strain but returned to make his best start of the season - a seven inning, one earned run, one walk performance - on August 30th and he made two more solid starts for the Cubs before a six earned run clunker against the Dodgers to end the season. All in all, it was basically a lost year for him.
2015 brings a new beginning in Chicago and more importantly the National League. For his career, Doubront has performed much better as a starter than a reliever. He has a 4.45 ERA in over 400 innings as a starter vs. an 8.58 ERA in 29 relief appearances. The problem with Doubront continues to be walks. He must reduce them in order to be successful. The Cubs had success turning Jake Arrieta around and the parallels between him and Doubront are obvious. Both have tremendous stuff but struggled with walks earlier in their careers before being traded to the Cubs. Doubront is out of options and will look to challenge for one of two rotation spots with Kyle Hendricks, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, and Jacob Turner.
Tyler Holt, OF CLE: The Caesars acquired Kevin Kiermaier earlier this offseason and see Holt as a very similar player. He doesn't have as clear of a path to playing time in Cleveland, though some analysts are calling for him to start, or at least platoon, in CF with Michael Bourn. Like Kiermaier, Holt is an outstanding defensive outfielder capable of playing all three outfield positions. His minor league career line is .269/.363/.348 with more than half of his 2,000+ PA coming at AA or AAA. He's a low power, on base, strong defensively, and has some speed (127/161 SB in minor leagues). The Caesars are very excited to see what Holt can do on a platoon or full time basis as Bourn is declining rapidly and a major injury risk.
Kyle Crockett, LHP CLE: Crockett was a top target of the Caesars who believe he will be a key component to the team's bullpen in 2015. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2013 draft out of UVA and made his MLB debut less than a year later. He doesn't throw much harder than 90 MPH but he has some deception and a good slider which both play up due to his stellar command. In 43 games last year, he compiled a 1.80 ERA with 28 strikeouts and eight walks. He was even more dominant in his minor league career, zooming through four levels and posted a 0.48 ERA in 42 games. He's particularly effective against left handed hitters as he held them to a .433 OPS in 102 PA across all levels in 2014 while right handed hitters hit .245/.306/.353 against him. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA loves him and two of his three comparable players are Kelvin Herrera and Drew Storen. At the very least he'll be one of the top LOOGYs in baseball but he has upside to be a valuable set-up man.
Felix Doubront, LHP CHC: Doubront has confounded baseball analysts for years as he's left handed with good stuff and has flashed brilliance at the MLB level. His ability to provide long relief in the 2013 World Series was a critical aspect to the Red Sox win and inspired optimism from the team and fanbase about his 2014 prospects. He failed miserably compiling a 2-4 record with a 5.12 ERA in his first nine starts. Following his start on May 20th, he hit the DL with a left shoulder strain.. He returned on June 20th to make what would be his final start as a Red Sox but didn't make it out of the fifth inning while walking four. He made a couple of relief appearances in mop up duty before the Sox traded him to Chicago at the trade deadline for a PTBNL. He made another trip to the DL with a calf strain but returned to make his best start of the season - a seven inning, one earned run, one walk performance - on August 30th and he made two more solid starts for the Cubs before a six earned run clunker against the Dodgers to end the season. All in all, it was basically a lost year for him.
2015 brings a new beginning in Chicago and more importantly the National League. For his career, Doubront has performed much better as a starter than a reliever. He has a 4.45 ERA in over 400 innings as a starter vs. an 8.58 ERA in 29 relief appearances. The problem with Doubront continues to be walks. He must reduce them in order to be successful. The Cubs had success turning Jake Arrieta around and the parallels between him and Doubront are obvious. Both have tremendous stuff but struggled with walks earlier in their careers before being traded to the Cubs. Doubront is out of options and will look to challenge for one of two rotation spots with Kyle Hendricks, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, and Jacob Turner.
Tyler Holt, OF CLE: The Caesars acquired Kevin Kiermaier earlier this offseason and see Holt as a very similar player. He doesn't have as clear of a path to playing time in Cleveland, though some analysts are calling for him to start, or at least platoon, in CF with Michael Bourn. Like Kiermaier, Holt is an outstanding defensive outfielder capable of playing all three outfield positions. His minor league career line is .269/.363/.348 with more than half of his 2,000+ PA coming at AA or AAA. He's a low power, on base, strong defensively, and has some speed (127/161 SB in minor leagues). The Caesars are very excited to see what Holt can do on a platoon or full time basis as Bourn is declining rapidly and a major injury risk.
Kyle Crockett, LHP CLE: Crockett was a top target of the Caesars who believe he will be a key component to the team's bullpen in 2015. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2013 draft out of UVA and made his MLB debut less than a year later. He doesn't throw much harder than 90 MPH but he has some deception and a good slider which both play up due to his stellar command. In 43 games last year, he compiled a 1.80 ERA with 28 strikeouts and eight walks. He was even more dominant in his minor league career, zooming through four levels and posted a 0.48 ERA in 42 games. He's particularly effective against left handed hitters as he held them to a .433 OPS in 102 PA across all levels in 2014 while right handed hitters hit .245/.306/.353 against him. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA loves him and two of his three comparable players are Kelvin Herrera and Drew Storen. At the very least he'll be one of the top LOOGYs in baseball but he has upside to be a valuable set-up man.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Trade with the Brooklyn 42s
The Caesars agreed to send catcher Christian Bethancourt to the Brooklyn 42s for outfielder Kevin Kiermaier. Both players will receive the same league minimum salary in 2015 and have similar service time with Kiermaier spending 58 days in his BSL rookie season compared to Bethancourt's 47.
The Caesars were looking to trade from their catching depth to improve depth at positions of need. Bethancourt sat behind John Jaso, Wilin Rosario, and Stephen Vogt on the depth chart prior to the trade. Kiermaier is eligible at all outfield positions in 2015 and projects to be the Rays' starting rightfielder. He should see the requisite 20 games in CF needed to retain his eligibility there.
Any discussion regarding Kiermaier begins with his defensive ability. He was nominated for a Gold Glove last year and inspired D-Rays Bat to relive his highlights in a two part series. The numbers back this up. Kiermaier began 2014 in AAA Durham and was called up twice until finally sticking around following his May 31st callup. As such, he only appeared in 108 MLB games where he played CF and RF. No outfielder with at least 800 innings had a higher UZR/150 than Kiermaier's 36.3. The next closest was Mets' defensive whiz Juan Lagares at 25.3. Kiermaier was much better in RF but held his own in CF. The scouting backs up the numbers. Coming into 2014, Kiermaier was rated as the Rays #10 prospect by Baseball America and the best defensive outfielder and arm in the system. Baseball Prospectus rated him 8th in the organization with similar praise for his defensive ability.
Kiermaier still has some questions regarding his offensive ability. His career minor league line was .278/.352/.398 in 1,649 plate appearances with 15 career home runs and he stole 86 bases while being caught 32 times. His overall major league line in 2014 was .263/.315/.450 with 10 home runs (one was of the inside the park variety) and but he was only successful in five of his nine stolen base attempts. Within his MLB line was a huge platoon split as the left handed hitter had an .840 OPS against RHP and a .497 OPS against LHP. Additionally he hit .315/.353/.574 in his first 50 games and struggled to a .213/.280/.331 line in his final 59 games. The Caesars expect his 2015 offensive performance to be slightly worse than his overall 2014 line and hope to see him steal bases more in line with his minor league rate. He saw just over 20% of his 2014 plate appearances against LHP and that should be the maximum allowed in 2015.
Ultimately, the trade was extremely fair. Bethancourt is a highly regarded, defense first catching prospect and rated in the back half of most publications' top 100 prospects coming into 2014 and should retain a spot there on the 2015 lists. He's a career .270/.300/.379 hitter in 2,189 minor league plate appearances over seven seasons. There are significant questions about the development of his bat. He appears to be in line to see the majority of playing time for the Braves at catcher in 2015. The Caesars feel Kiermaier is the more likely bet to have a playable bat and their catcher depth afforded them the chance to trade Bethancourt. The Caesars originally acquired Bethancourt from the Line in the November 2013. Bethancourt was traded along with Donn Roach and Orlando Arcia to the Caesars for David Freese, Charlie Morton, and Dan Uggla. This could turn out to be a win-win trade for both teams.
The Caesars were looking to trade from their catching depth to improve depth at positions of need. Bethancourt sat behind John Jaso, Wilin Rosario, and Stephen Vogt on the depth chart prior to the trade. Kiermaier is eligible at all outfield positions in 2015 and projects to be the Rays' starting rightfielder. He should see the requisite 20 games in CF needed to retain his eligibility there.
Any discussion regarding Kiermaier begins with his defensive ability. He was nominated for a Gold Glove last year and inspired D-Rays Bat to relive his highlights in a two part series. The numbers back this up. Kiermaier began 2014 in AAA Durham and was called up twice until finally sticking around following his May 31st callup. As such, he only appeared in 108 MLB games where he played CF and RF. No outfielder with at least 800 innings had a higher UZR/150 than Kiermaier's 36.3. The next closest was Mets' defensive whiz Juan Lagares at 25.3. Kiermaier was much better in RF but held his own in CF. The scouting backs up the numbers. Coming into 2014, Kiermaier was rated as the Rays #10 prospect by Baseball America and the best defensive outfielder and arm in the system. Baseball Prospectus rated him 8th in the organization with similar praise for his defensive ability.
Kiermaier still has some questions regarding his offensive ability. His career minor league line was .278/.352/.398 in 1,649 plate appearances with 15 career home runs and he stole 86 bases while being caught 32 times. His overall major league line in 2014 was .263/.315/.450 with 10 home runs (one was of the inside the park variety) and but he was only successful in five of his nine stolen base attempts. Within his MLB line was a huge platoon split as the left handed hitter had an .840 OPS against RHP and a .497 OPS against LHP. Additionally he hit .315/.353/.574 in his first 50 games and struggled to a .213/.280/.331 line in his final 59 games. The Caesars expect his 2015 offensive performance to be slightly worse than his overall 2014 line and hope to see him steal bases more in line with his minor league rate. He saw just over 20% of his 2014 plate appearances against LHP and that should be the maximum allowed in 2015.
Ultimately, the trade was extremely fair. Bethancourt is a highly regarded, defense first catching prospect and rated in the back half of most publications' top 100 prospects coming into 2014 and should retain a spot there on the 2015 lists. He's a career .270/.300/.379 hitter in 2,189 minor league plate appearances over seven seasons. There are significant questions about the development of his bat. He appears to be in line to see the majority of playing time for the Braves at catcher in 2015. The Caesars feel Kiermaier is the more likely bet to have a playable bat and their catcher depth afforded them the chance to trade Bethancourt. The Caesars originally acquired Bethancourt from the Line in the November 2013. Bethancourt was traded along with Donn Roach and Orlando Arcia to the Caesars for David Freese, Charlie Morton, and Dan Uggla. This could turn out to be a win-win trade for both teams.
Friday, January 16, 2015
2015 Free Agent Signings Part Two
The second batch of offseason signings are below. The Caesars don't anticipate making any further MLB signings and have a number of players targeted in the minor league phase of free agency.
John Jaso, C TB: Jaso has been a member of the Caesars since the inception of BSL. He received $4.5 million in the 2013 initial auction which included the rights to at least 2014 and 2015. He received a modest raise to $4.9 million through arbitration for 2014. His 2015 arbitration number soared to $7.8 million and led to him being non-tendered.
The Caesars were thrilled to sign Jaso for what amounted to a two year, $3 million contract. Jaso's problem over the past two seasons has been staying healthy and for $1.5 million a season, his offensive upside from the catcher's position is a reasonable gamble. His career numbers are .259/.359/.399 and he's eclipsed that .758 OPS in each of the last three seasons. Jaso has suffered season ending concussions in July 2013 and August 2014.
If Jaso stays healthy and exhibits no negative signs of his previous concussions, this contract is a steal for the Caesars. He was recently traded by the A's to the Rays. He projects to get more time at catcher with the Rays than he would have with the A's, but the Rays were adamant in stating they view him as a hitter first. The Rays will attempt to keep Jaso healthier by using him at DH more than catcher, but he should catch enough (20 games) to retain eligibility in BSL.
Dian Toscano, OF ATL: Toscano became eligible for free agency by signing a four year, $6 million major league contract with the Braves. The deal includes an option for a fifth year. The consensus view on Toscano is a role player, fourth outfielder. He never played for the Cuban National Team but performed well in the Cuban Serie Nacional. He played 265 games across five seasons with his last coming in 2013 as he was suspended for attempting to defect. In the Serie Nacional he was a lifetime .301/.405/.428 hitter with 13 career home runs and a career 80/99 K/BB ratio. He bats and throws left handed although his weak arm prevents him from playing RF. He has the speed to play CF.
He is only 25 and the Caesars are willing to give him a major league deal to see what he has. At worst, they project him as a bench OFer, with CF qualification. At best, he could turn into an everyday player with modest steals and batting average upside. Toscano has yet to officially sign with the Braves due to a visa issue. If that is not resolved by the start of the season, he will be placed on the restricted list.
Trevor Cahill, SP ARI: Cahill was non-tendered by the Dream Inceptors when his projected salary for this season was $5 million. This was Cahill's third arbitration eligible season, so he was destined to be a free agent next year. The Inceptors let him go after his disastrous 2014 season. Cahill's MLB contract pays him $12 million in 2015 and has team options for 2016 and 2017. Those options surely won't be picked up and the Diamondbacks couldn't get anyone to take Cahill for when they DFAed him last June.
Cahill struggled in 110.2 innings last season, mostly due to his walk rate increasing for the third consecutive season. He did, however, manage to also bump his strikeout rate up so his K/BB ratio wasn't as bad as it was in 2013. It appears Cahill has the ability to bounce back as he posted the second best FIP and xFIP of his career. He didn't get as many ground balls and let up an astounding amount of line drives.
The Caesars are hoping for a FIP induced bounce back from Cahill. They gave him a one year contract with a reasonable club option if he pitches 170 innings. The only way he will hit that mark is if he's healthy and effective, so it's likely to be a cheap, one year deal. He has an excellent chance of being at least a league average starter and the upside is there to be more of a mid-rotation arm. At worst, he'll be an effective RP as he's much better against RH than LH (.929 vs .657 OPS).
John Jaso, C TB: Jaso has been a member of the Caesars since the inception of BSL. He received $4.5 million in the 2013 initial auction which included the rights to at least 2014 and 2015. He received a modest raise to $4.9 million through arbitration for 2014. His 2015 arbitration number soared to $7.8 million and led to him being non-tendered.
The Caesars were thrilled to sign Jaso for what amounted to a two year, $3 million contract. Jaso's problem over the past two seasons has been staying healthy and for $1.5 million a season, his offensive upside from the catcher's position is a reasonable gamble. His career numbers are .259/.359/.399 and he's eclipsed that .758 OPS in each of the last three seasons. Jaso has suffered season ending concussions in July 2013 and August 2014.
If Jaso stays healthy and exhibits no negative signs of his previous concussions, this contract is a steal for the Caesars. He was recently traded by the A's to the Rays. He projects to get more time at catcher with the Rays than he would have with the A's, but the Rays were adamant in stating they view him as a hitter first. The Rays will attempt to keep Jaso healthier by using him at DH more than catcher, but he should catch enough (20 games) to retain eligibility in BSL.
Dian Toscano, OF ATL: Toscano became eligible for free agency by signing a four year, $6 million major league contract with the Braves. The deal includes an option for a fifth year. The consensus view on Toscano is a role player, fourth outfielder. He never played for the Cuban National Team but performed well in the Cuban Serie Nacional. He played 265 games across five seasons with his last coming in 2013 as he was suspended for attempting to defect. In the Serie Nacional he was a lifetime .301/.405/.428 hitter with 13 career home runs and a career 80/99 K/BB ratio. He bats and throws left handed although his weak arm prevents him from playing RF. He has the speed to play CF.
He is only 25 and the Caesars are willing to give him a major league deal to see what he has. At worst, they project him as a bench OFer, with CF qualification. At best, he could turn into an everyday player with modest steals and batting average upside. Toscano has yet to officially sign with the Braves due to a visa issue. If that is not resolved by the start of the season, he will be placed on the restricted list.
Trevor Cahill, SP ARI: Cahill was non-tendered by the Dream Inceptors when his projected salary for this season was $5 million. This was Cahill's third arbitration eligible season, so he was destined to be a free agent next year. The Inceptors let him go after his disastrous 2014 season. Cahill's MLB contract pays him $12 million in 2015 and has team options for 2016 and 2017. Those options surely won't be picked up and the Diamondbacks couldn't get anyone to take Cahill for when they DFAed him last June.
Cahill struggled in 110.2 innings last season, mostly due to his walk rate increasing for the third consecutive season. He did, however, manage to also bump his strikeout rate up so his K/BB ratio wasn't as bad as it was in 2013. It appears Cahill has the ability to bounce back as he posted the second best FIP and xFIP of his career. He didn't get as many ground balls and let up an astounding amount of line drives.
The Caesars are hoping for a FIP induced bounce back from Cahill. They gave him a one year contract with a reasonable club option if he pitches 170 innings. The only way he will hit that mark is if he's healthy and effective, so it's likely to be a cheap, one year deal. He has an excellent chance of being at least a league average starter and the upside is there to be more of a mid-rotation arm. At worst, he'll be an effective RP as he's much better against RH than LH (.929 vs .657 OPS).
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
2015 Free Agents Signings Part One
The Caesars are pleased to announce their first free agent signings of the 2014-15 offseason:
Alberto Callaspo, IF ATL: The Caesars lost Braves IF Phil Gosselin in the Rule 5 draft earlier this season which opened a hole for a reserve infielder. Callaspo is eligible to start at 2B or 3B and off the bench at 1B. Callaspo had the worst season of his career in 2014, hitting .223/.290/.290 for the A's. His season was marred by a mid-season trip to the 15-Day DL for a strained right hamstring. He returned to the A's after the minimum required stay and a one game rehab stint, but he never seemed to get going. He had been hitting .234/.308/.309 prior to the injury but struggled to a .197/.248/.246 line afterwards. He has now hit the DL twice in as many seasons with right leg strains and the effect is noticeable. He has only attempted three steals in the past two seasons after attempting at least seven in each season from 2010-2012.
Callaspo has been a free agent every BSL offseason. He was originally signed in March 2013 by the Legends for one year, $1,250,000. SOS signed him ahead of the 2014 season for $2,300,000 and bought him out a $2,000,000 option for this season for $300,000.
Gregor Blanco, OF SF: This will be Blanco's first go around the BSL AL as he played for Menace in 2013 and the Monarchs in 2014. He was non-tendered after both seasons and was projected to earn $5.5 million this year. The Caesars had explored the possibility of acquiring Blanco for last year's stretch run but were unable to find a match.
Blanco posted the best OPS+ of his career in 2014 and struck out less than ever. He has played in at least 140 games and every outfield position in his three years with the Giants and was tendered a contract for 2015 and projects to start in left field for them. Since he is eligible at CF, the Caesars will play him there. Blanco is an extremely capable CFer and has posted a higher UZR/150 than highly regarded defenders like Jacoby Ellsbury, Denard Span, and Leonys Martin since 2012.
Carson Smith, RHP SEA: This is Smith's BSL debut as he went unsigned following his September callup in 2014. Smith pitched 8.1 IP without allowing a run and posting a 10/3 K/BB for the Mariners last September. Since being drafted in the 8th round of the 2011 Draft from Texas State, Smith has posted a 2.55 ERA in 155 minor league innings at A+, AA, and AAA. Most impressive is his 11.2 K/9 paired with a 3.4 BB/9. Smith only threw 43 AAA innings in 2014 as he battled back, finger, and oblique injuries. The Mariners and Caesars expect him to be fully healthy come Spring Training 2015 and envision him as a potential set-up man.
Mariners' manager Lloyd McLendon was a big fan of Smith's September work saying, "I love his sinker. We’ve thrust him into the midst of a pennant race, and he’s done a nice job. He’s got real good stuff. He throws strikes, and he’s not afraid. He’s pretty impressive." Baseball Prospectus noted that Smith just missed the Mariners' Top 10 prospect list following the 2013 season observing, "The fastball is pretty nasty, thrown with plus velocity and lots of movement, and if the slider can tighten up, he has late-innings potential." ESPN's Keith Law felt that Smith would be limited to a RH specialist role, but Smith actually held left-handed hitters to a .539 OPS in 2014, 71 points lower than right-handed hitters.
Alberto Callaspo, IF ATL: The Caesars lost Braves IF Phil Gosselin in the Rule 5 draft earlier this season which opened a hole for a reserve infielder. Callaspo is eligible to start at 2B or 3B and off the bench at 1B. Callaspo had the worst season of his career in 2014, hitting .223/.290/.290 for the A's. His season was marred by a mid-season trip to the 15-Day DL for a strained right hamstring. He returned to the A's after the minimum required stay and a one game rehab stint, but he never seemed to get going. He had been hitting .234/.308/.309 prior to the injury but struggled to a .197/.248/.246 line afterwards. He has now hit the DL twice in as many seasons with right leg strains and the effect is noticeable. He has only attempted three steals in the past two seasons after attempting at least seven in each season from 2010-2012.
Callaspo has been a free agent every BSL offseason. He was originally signed in March 2013 by the Legends for one year, $1,250,000. SOS signed him ahead of the 2014 season for $2,300,000 and bought him out a $2,000,000 option for this season for $300,000.
Gregor Blanco, OF SF: This will be Blanco's first go around the BSL AL as he played for Menace in 2013 and the Monarchs in 2014. He was non-tendered after both seasons and was projected to earn $5.5 million this year. The Caesars had explored the possibility of acquiring Blanco for last year's stretch run but were unable to find a match.
Blanco posted the best OPS+ of his career in 2014 and struck out less than ever. He has played in at least 140 games and every outfield position in his three years with the Giants and was tendered a contract for 2015 and projects to start in left field for them. Since he is eligible at CF, the Caesars will play him there. Blanco is an extremely capable CFer and has posted a higher UZR/150 than highly regarded defenders like Jacoby Ellsbury, Denard Span, and Leonys Martin since 2012.
Carson Smith, RHP SEA: This is Smith's BSL debut as he went unsigned following his September callup in 2014. Smith pitched 8.1 IP without allowing a run and posting a 10/3 K/BB for the Mariners last September. Since being drafted in the 8th round of the 2011 Draft from Texas State, Smith has posted a 2.55 ERA in 155 minor league innings at A+, AA, and AAA. Most impressive is his 11.2 K/9 paired with a 3.4 BB/9. Smith only threw 43 AAA innings in 2014 as he battled back, finger, and oblique injuries. The Mariners and Caesars expect him to be fully healthy come Spring Training 2015 and envision him as a potential set-up man.
Mariners' manager Lloyd McLendon was a big fan of Smith's September work saying, "I love his sinker. We’ve thrust him into the midst of a pennant race, and he’s done a nice job. He’s got real good stuff. He throws strikes, and he’s not afraid. He’s pretty impressive." Baseball Prospectus noted that Smith just missed the Mariners' Top 10 prospect list following the 2013 season observing, "The fastball is pretty nasty, thrown with plus velocity and lots of movement, and if the slider can tighten up, he has late-innings potential." ESPN's Keith Law felt that Smith would be limited to a RH specialist role, but Smith actually held left-handed hitters to a .539 OPS in 2014, 71 points lower than right-handed hitters.
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