Minor League Invitations, Part Three

Here is the next batch of Caesars minor league invites:

Todd Redmond, RHP TOR: Redmond spent part of the 2014 season on the Caesars AAA so they were happy to bring him back for 2015. He was a full time reliever for the Blue Jays in 2014 after making 14 starts for them in 2013. He was able to handle a heavier workload than the typical reliever and finished 11th in RP IP in MLB. The overwhelming majority of his work came in low leverage situations and he often went six or more days without being used. He's the last man in the bullpen and saved for extra innings or mop up duty. Redmond walks a very tight rope as he gets groundballs at low 32.7% clip, has historically been prone to home runs (last year was an exception), and doesn't strike out batters at an above average rate. He will likely regress and post an ERA closer to four than three in 2015, but the volume of his innings gives him some value. 

Bryan Anderson, C OAK: Here is the A's current catching depth chart: Stephen Vogt (Caesar! but 15 games at C last year), Josh Phegley (career .553 OPS in 76 games), Anderson/Luke Carlin (34 years old)/Blake Forsythe. This is a bet on the A's running out of catchers. Anderson was a top 100 prospect earlier in his career after being drafted by the Cardinals out of a California HS in the fourth round of the 2005 draft. He peaked at #85 on the Baseball America list and #71 on the Baseball Prospectus list after hitting .298/.350/.388 in AA Springfield as a 20 year old. He made it to AAA the next season and his progress stalled as he dealt with numerous injuries. He made his MLB debut in 2010 and got at least an AB in each of the last three seasons, but they've all been for different teams. The A's purchased him from the Reds late last season when he hit .320/.397/.538 in AA and AAA including a .964 OPS vs RH. Anderson could be a viable lefthanded member of a platoon. Phegley hits right handed and Vogt could continue seeing the majority of his time at COF and 1B, meaning Anderson will get a shot to play a lot. The A's could go another direction, but the Caesars expect to see Anderson take an April AB in MLB for the first time since 2010.   

Juan Jaime, RHP ATL: Jaime checks in at 6'2, 200 and can easily touch the upper 90s. He was signed way back in 2004 by the Nationals as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic, but was released following the 2009 season. Following a stint in the Mexican League, the Braves signed him in 2012 and assigned him to the Carolina League. He progressed through the system, including a stint in the 2013 Arizona Fall League, to make his MLB debut last summer. In the Braves system he threw 134.1 innings and struck out 206, good for a 13.8 K/9. Unfortunately he also walked 97 in those innings. The same problems plagued him in his brief debut last summer. In 12.1 MLB innings he struck out 18 while walking nine. He showed progress in the Domincan Winter League recording a 25/6 K/BB ratio in 16.1 IP. If he can continue this progress and exhibit some form of control, he could be a viable major league reliever. He obviously has a strong fastball and his curveball and splitter can both be average. He'll be 28 in August so age is not on his side.

Rafael Lopez, C CHC: The Cubs entered the offseason with Wellington Castillo as their starting catcher and Lopez serving as his backup. After trading for Miguel Montero and signed veteran backup David Ross, both are potentially ticketed for AAA, but it's likely Castillo is traded. Lopez has the upside of being an offensive minded MLB backup, but he's already 27 and just cracked AAA and MLB last year, so his opportunity is fleeting. He was drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft from Florida State and has always been old for his level in his journey through the minor leagues. That's played some of a role in his career .281/.371/.401 line. He bats lefthanded and has had significant platoon splits at AA and AAA. He has only thrown out 31% of minor league basestealers which would rate him among the worst in MLB. It's unlikely he sees MLB time before September and if the Cubs are as good as many think they will be, he won't even get an opportunity then. 

Minor League Invitations, Part Two

Here is the next batch of Caesars minor league invites:

Steven Wright, RHP BOS: The Caesars traded Red Sox catcher Christian Vazquez earlier this offseason and that move helped them learn about Wright. Wright is a knuckle-baller and Vaquez is an elite defensive catcher. This will give Wright confidence to float balls all over the place. He said no catcher has ever been as excited to catch him as Vazquez and that article also reveals that Wright has been working with Tim Wakefield, the best modern-day knuckler. Wright pitched mainly in AAA last season, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 95 innings, but also threw 21 innings allowing a 2.57 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in the major leagues. Wright will look to be a swingman for the Sox in 2015 and the Caesars are hopeful that he'll continue to have the success he exhibited last year when Vazquez was catching for him.

Jason Motte, RHP CHC: The Caesars originally signed Motte in the 2013 FASP process before he was ruled out for the season with Tommy John surgery. They used that as an opportunity to get him on a cheap one year contract for 2014, but his subpar performance led to him being released on August 31st. There's no question the road back from TJS is a long one and Motte showed this last year. His average velocity in 2011 and 2012 eclipsed 97 MPH but he just barely cracked 95 MPH in 2014. He also showed threw 7.9 % changeups after never throwing more than 2% in previous seasons. The Cardinals did not resign him and he moved to their young, surging rival, the Cubs, on a one year contract. Motte was downright terrible last year. He couldn't get the ball past batters or locate and when he managed to throw strikes, he got hit hard, allowing a 20% HR/FB rate. If Motte's stuff is back, he could bounce back to being close to his former self. The days of a 2.00 ERA are probably over, but something in the low 3s is definitely feasible.

Jason Rogers, 1B MIL: Rogers looks like the classic AAAA player. He was drafted in the 23rd round from Columbus State University, will be 27 in early March, and is a career .286/.367/.453 minor league hitter. He was drafted as a first baseman but made the transition to third base in 2014, but he only posted a .938 fielding percentage. He hits right handed and had a very wide platoon split across AA and AAA last year and hit 15/18 home runs vs left handed pitching. Despite not making any outlet's Brewers top ten prospects (still waiting on my BA handbook), he has a good chance of making the team to serve as a platoon mate to Adam Lind and backup to Aramis Ramirez. If he makes the team and mostly plays against left-handed pitching, the Caesars will look for him to outperform his 249/.315/.404 PECOTA projection, primarily in the OBP. If he qualifies at 3B, he'd be a decent backup, but probably will not hit enough to ever get consideration at 1B.

Justin Bour, 1B MIA:  Like Rogers, Bour looks like a classic AAAA hitter. He was drafted by the Cubs in the 25th round of the 2009 draft from George Mason University in Fairfax, VA (a DC suburb). The Marlins drafted him in the minor league phase of the 2013 draft and he thrived in the PCL hitting .306/.372/.517 in 430 PAs. The real breakout was the power as he had never slugged higher than .478 at any level of the minor leagues. Additionally he continued to improve his contact ability as he struck out in 13.3% of his PAs while his career rate coming into the season was 18.6%. He was called up three times and played 20 games over the summer before playing 18 games in September. His overall MLB line was a respectable .284/.361/.365 albeit it was slightly inflated by a .370 BABIP. He hits lefthanded and seems like a natural platoon partner with the recently signed Michael Morse.

2015 Minor League Invitations, Part One

The Boys of Summer league allows teams to offer players minor league contracts beginning on February 1st. The Caesars are hoping to ultimately add ten or twelve minor league free agents. Here is a quick rundown of the first batch of signees:

Felix Doubront, LHP CHC: Doubront has confounded baseball analysts for years as he's left handed with good stuff and has flashed brilliance at the MLB level. His ability to provide long relief in the 2013 World Series was a critical aspect to the Red Sox win and inspired optimism from the team and fanbase about his 2014 prospects. He failed miserably compiling a 2-4 record with a 5.12 ERA in his first nine starts. Following his start on May 20th, he hit the DL with a left shoulder strain.. He returned on June 20th to make what would be his final start as a Red Sox but didn't make it out of the fifth inning while walking four. He made a couple of relief appearances in mop up duty before the Sox traded him to Chicago at the trade deadline for a PTBNL. He made another trip to the DL with a calf strain but returned to make his best start of the season - a seven inning, one earned run, one walk performance - on August 30th and he made two more solid starts for the Cubs before a six earned run clunker against the Dodgers to end the season. All in all, it was basically a lost year for him.

2015 brings a new beginning in Chicago and more importantly the National League. For his career, Doubront has performed much better as a starter than a reliever. He has a 4.45 ERA in over 400 innings as a starter vs. an 8.58 ERA in 29 relief appearances. The problem with Doubront continues to be walks. He must reduce them in order to be successful. The Cubs had success turning Jake Arrieta around and the parallels between him and Doubront are obvious. Both have tremendous stuff but struggled with walks earlier in their careers before being traded to the Cubs. Doubront is out of options and will look to challenge for one of two rotation spots with Kyle Hendricks, Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, and Jacob Turner.

Tyler Holt, OF CLE: The Caesars acquired Kevin Kiermaier earlier this offseason and see Holt as a very similar player. He doesn't have as clear of a path to playing time in Cleveland, though some analysts are calling for him to start, or at least platoon, in CF with Michael Bourn. Like Kiermaier, Holt is an outstanding defensive outfielder capable of playing all three outfield positions. His minor league career line is .269/.363/.348 with more than half of his 2,000+ PA coming at AA or AAA. He's a low power, on base, strong defensively, and has some speed (127/161 SB in minor leagues). The Caesars are very excited to see what Holt can do on a platoon or full time basis as Bourn is declining rapidly and a major injury risk.

Kyle Crockett, LHP CLE: Crockett was a top target of the Caesars who believe he will be a key component to the team's bullpen in 2015. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2013 draft out of UVA and made his MLB debut less than a year later. He doesn't throw much harder than 90 MPH but he has some deception and a good slider which both play up due to his stellar command. In 43 games last year, he compiled a 1.80 ERA with 28 strikeouts and eight walks. He was even more dominant in his minor league career, zooming through four levels and posted a 0.48 ERA in 42 games. He's particularly effective against left handed hitters as he held them to a .433 OPS in 102 PA across all levels in 2014 while right handed hitters hit .245/.306/.353 against him. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA loves him and two of his three comparable players are Kelvin Herrera and Drew Storen. At the very least he'll be one of the top LOOGYs in baseball but he has upside to be a valuable set-up man.